All three commercial structures
same assumptions · each column carries its own hurdle and covenantA single hurdle across three structures tests the wrong thing: the risk retained after contracting differs, so the required return does too.
Revenue stack & EBITDA
€m nominal · from the workbook's quarterly gridsDSCR profile
credited CADS ÷ scheduled debt service · rolling 12mNPV tornado
equity NPV · ±20% swings, each a full model re-runBar ends = lever at ±20%. Red = NPV falls, green = NPV rises. Widest bar = biggest bankability risk.
Sensitivity matrix
multiplicative swings · Δ vs base in bracketsSources & uses
Cumulative equity cash flow
post-tax, incl. terminal value — payback where the line crosses zeroAnnual cash-flow statement (lender format — click to collapse)
Day-ahead wholesale price — DE-LU
Source: SMARD.de market data · hourly, last 7 days · synthetic until wired
Ancillary service capacity prices
Source: regelleistung.net tenders · weekly averages, trailing 52 weeks · synthetic until wired
German BESS revenue stack
ME BESS DE (2 h) — annualised monthly revenue by stream (€k/MW/yr). Click any legend item to hide/show it in the stack.
Ancillary saturation monitor — fleet vs. balancing-market depth
German grid-scale BESS build-out against the (nearly fixed) FCR + aFRR capacity procurement. The saturation ratio drives the “Ancillary saturation decay” assumption in the simulator.
Project & deal tracker — what's getting built (and how)
Curated German anchor projects (press releases linked ↗) merged with the full Modo Energy Q2 2026 European deal tracker. Structure classification is editorial where not stated. Click any column heading to sort ↑↓.
| Project · size | Developer / investor | Country / TSO | Status · Date | Structure & revenue route | Partners / offtaker | Press ↗ |
|---|
TSO control areas — grid & siting risk
Stylised schematic (not geodetically accurate). Click a zone for detail. Risk scores: author's screening assessment — not sourced data; institutional starting points in the Sources tab.
| Control area | Congestion | Queue (typ.) | Lease risk | BKZ exposure | Note |
|---|
Model engine — full annual statement
The complete calculation array behind every KPI, Excel-style. Every cell recomputes instantly from the sidebar sliders (engine: see header pill). Formula audits: hover the KPI cards on the Investment Simulator tab. Row references map to BESS_PF_Model_v4_PostExemption.xlsx — annual lines to Ann, the covenant DSCR to Debt row 55 (quarterly, so a year spans four columns).
All monetary rows in €m nominal. Y0 = FID/financial close; pre-COD carry years appear when a grid-connection delay is set. DSCR shows “—” where no debt service falls due. Use “⬇ CSV” on the Simulator tab for the raw export.
Sources & references
All externally sourced facts in this dashboard cite the entries below via superscript [n]. Accessed . Likelihood bands, IRR impacts and scenario mappings are the author's analytical judgment and are labelled as such where they appear. Market panels marked PLACEHOLDER show synthetic data shaped like the cited source until the backend is wired.
Regulatory outcomes — timeline & likelihood
Key upcoming / potential regulation for German BESS. Statuses & dates sourced ; likelihood bands and IRR impacts are the author's analytical judgment (rationale in each card). Click a card for scenarios.
Germany capacity auctions — StromVKG law passed
| Auction | Bid dates | Volume | Contract | Eligible | BESS |
|---|
Regulatory news feed
BNetzA · BMWK · TSOs · associations · market research — each item cites its source [n]
Policy → IRR risk matrix
Mapping of key German policy areas to project-return sensitivity. Statuses are sourced [n]; impact estimates are the author's indicative screening values — refine per project in the simulator (e.g. toggle the §118 EnWG exemption in the sidebar).
| Policy area | Reference | Status | Direction | Est. IRR impact | Risk |
|---|